2026 Market Outlook
A NexaTec Research report — January 2026. This is a summary of the full 34-page edition.
Rates and inflation
The year begins with the major central banks still on a gradual, well-telegraphed path. Inflation has cooled from its peaks but remains sticky in services, and policymakers are in no hurry to declare victory. For investors, this means a market environment where patience is rewarded and surprises are punished. Energy prices remain the wild card: a single geopolitical shock could quickly undo months of progress.
The AI investment wave
Capital spending on data centres, chips and cloud infrastructure continues at a historic pace. The big question for 2026 is not whether companies are investing in artificial intelligence — they are — but when the productivity payoff arrives. We expect investors to become more selective, rewarding firms that can show real revenue from AI products rather than simply promising it.
Energy and commodities
The energy transition keeps demand for copper, lithium and other industrial metals elevated, even as oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitics. This dual pressure creates both opportunities and risks: miners and grid suppliers benefit from electrification, while energy-intensive industries face volatile input costs.
What could go wrong
Trade tensions, contested elections and regional conflicts all have the potential to unsettle markets this year. History suggests that the investors who fare best in uncertain years are those who diversify, favour quality balance sheets and avoid concentration in a single theme — however exciting it may be.
This report is an independent NexaTec Research publication. It is for information and education only and is not financial advice. (34 pages, January 2026)
